Add new daemons and debug scripts for Sigenergy and Oracle functionalities

- Implement `sigen_daemon.py` to poll Sigenergy plant metrics and store snapshots. - Create `web_daemon.py` for serving a web interface with various endpoints. - Add debug scripts: - `debug_duplicates.py` to find duplicate target times in forecast data. - `debug_energy_forecast.py` to print baseline energy forecast curves. - `debug_oracle_evaluations.py` to run the oracle evaluator. - `debug_sigen.py` to inspect stored Sigenergy plant snapshots. - `debug_weather.py` to trace resolved truth data. - `modbus_test.py` for exploring Sigenergy plants or inverters over Modbus TCP. - Introduce `oracle_evaluator.py` for evaluating stored oracle predictions against actuals. - Add TCN training scripts in `tcn` directory for training usage sequence models.
2026-04-28 08:14:00 +02:00
parent ff0c65a794
commit c8e3016fd6
55 changed files with 6385 additions and 633 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+from gibil.classes.models import ForecastKind, PowerForecastPoint, PowerForecastRun
+from gibil.classes.oracle.config import EnergyForecastConfig
+from gibil.classes.sigen.store import SigenStore
+
+
+class BaselineUsageOracle:
+    """Forecasts near-future load from recent high-resolution Sigen history."""
+
+    model_version = "baseline_recent_load_v1"
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        sigen_store: SigenStore,
+        config: EnergyForecastConfig,
+    ) -> None:
+        self.sigen_store = sigen_store
+        self.config = config
+
+    def forecast(
+        self,
+        target_times: list[datetime],
+        issued_at: datetime | None = None,
+    ) -> PowerForecastRun:
+        if issued_at is None:
+            issued_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+
+        lookback = timedelta(minutes=self.config.load_lookback_minutes)
+        summary = self.sigen_store.load_recent_power_summary(lookback=lookback)
+        latest = self.sigen_store.load_latest_snapshot()
+        fallback_load_w = latest.load_power_w if latest else 0.0
+
+        p50 = self._number(summary.get("load_p50_w"), fallback_load_w)
+        p10 = max(0.0, self._number(summary.get("load_p10_w"), p50 * 0.7))
+        p90 = max(
+            self._number(summary.get("load_p90_w"), p50 * 1.5),
+            p50 * 1.25,
+        )
+
+        points = [
+            PowerForecastPoint(
+                target_at=target_at,
+                horizon_minutes=max(
+                    0, round((target_at - issued_at).total_seconds() / 60)
+                ),
+                expected_power_w=p50,
+                p10_power_w=p10,
+                p50_power_w=p50,
+                p90_power_w=p90,
+                confidence=0.35,
+                source="recent_sigen_load",
+                model_version=self.model_version,
+                metadata={
+                    "lookback_minutes": self.config.load_lookback_minutes,
+                    "load_avg_w": summary.get("load_avg_w"),
+                    "load_max_w": summary.get("load_max_w"),
+                },
+            )
+            for target_at in target_times
+        ]
+
+        return PowerForecastRun(
+            issued_at=issued_at,
+            kind=ForecastKind.LOAD,
+            source="baseline_usage_oracle",
+            model_version=self.model_version,
+            points=points,
+        )
+
+    def _number(self, value: object, fallback: float) -> float:
+        if value is None:
+            return float(fallback)
+        return float(value)