Astrape/gibil/classes/oracle/builder.py

from __future__ import annotations

from datetime import datetime, timezone

from gibil.classes.models import NetPowerForecastRun, PowerForecastPoint, PowerForecastRun
from gibil.classes.oracle.config import EnergyForecastConfig
from gibil.classes.predictors.net_forecaster import NetPowerForecaster
from gibil.classes.predictors.solar_rolling_regression import RollingSolarRegressionOracle
from gibil.classes.predictors.usage_daily import DailyUsageOracle
from gibil.classes.sigen.store import SigenStore
from gibil.classes.weather.store import WeatherStore


class EnergyOracleBuilder:
    """Builds production, load, and net oracle curves."""

    def __init__(
        self,
        weather_store: WeatherStore,
        sigen_store: SigenStore,
        config: EnergyForecastConfig,
    ) -> None:
        self.weather_store = weather_store
        self.sigen_store = sigen_store
        self.config = config

    @classmethod
    def from_env(cls) -> "EnergyOracleBuilder":
        return cls(
            weather_store=WeatherStore.from_env(),
            sigen_store=SigenStore.from_env(),
            config=EnergyForecastConfig.from_env(),
        )

    def build(self) -> tuple[PowerForecastRun, PowerForecastRun, NetPowerForecastRun]:
        issued_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
        hourly_solar_run = RollingSolarRegressionOracle(
            weather_store=self.weather_store,
            sigen_store=self.sigen_store,
            config=self.config,
        ).forecast(issued_at=issued_at)
        solar_run = self._resample_power_run(
            hourly_solar_run,
            issued_at=issued_at,
            step_minutes=self.config.oracle_step_minutes,
        )
        load_run = DailyUsageOracle(
            sigen_store=self.sigen_store,
            config=self.config,
        ).forecast(
            target_times=[point.target_at for point in solar_run.points],
            issued_at=issued_at,
        )
        net_run = NetPowerForecaster().combine(solar_run, load_run)
        return solar_run, load_run, net_run

    def _resample_power_run(
        self,
        run: PowerForecastRun,
        issued_at: datetime,
        step_minutes: int,
    ) -> PowerForecastRun:
        if step_minutes <= 0 or len(run.points) < 2:
            return run

        points = sorted(run.points, key=lambda point: point.target_at)
        end_at = min(
            points[-1].target_at,
            issued_at + self._timedelta_hours(self.config.horizon_hours),
        )
        target_at = self._ceil_time(issued_at, step_minutes)
        sampled_points: list[PowerForecastPoint] = []

        while target_at <= end_at:
            point = self._interpolate_power_point(points, target_at, issued_at)
            if point is not None:
                sampled_points.append(point)
            target_at += self._timedelta_minutes(step_minutes)

        current_point = self._current_power_point(points, issued_at)
        if current_point is not None:
            sampled_points.insert(0, current_point)

        if not sampled_points:
            return run

        return PowerForecastRun(
            issued_at=run.issued_at,
            kind=run.kind,
            source=run.source,
            model_version=f"{run.model_version}_sampled_{step_minutes}m",
            points=sampled_points,
        )

    def _interpolate_power_point(
        self,
        points: list[PowerForecastPoint],
        target_at: datetime,
        issued_at: datetime,
    ) -> PowerForecastPoint | None:
        if target_at < points[0].target_at or target_at > points[-1].target_at:
            return None

        for index in range(len(points) - 1):
            left = points[index]
            right = points[index + 1]
            if left.target_at <= target_at <= right.target_at:
                ratio = self._time_ratio(left.target_at, right.target_at, target_at)
                p10 = self._lerp(left.p10_power_w, right.p10_power_w, ratio)
                p50 = self._lerp(left.p50_power_w, right.p50_power_w, ratio)
                p90 = self._lerp(left.p90_power_w, right.p90_power_w, ratio)
                return PowerForecastPoint(
                    target_at=target_at,
                    horizon_minutes=max(
                        0, round((target_at - issued_at).total_seconds() / 60)
                    ),
                    expected_power_w=p50,
                    p10_power_w=p10,
                    p50_power_w=p50,
                    p90_power_w=p90,
                    confidence=self._lerp(left.confidence, right.confidence, ratio),
                    source=left.source,
                    model_version=left.model_version,
                    metadata={
                        "interpolated": True,
                        "left_target_at": left.target_at.isoformat(),
                        "right_target_at": right.target_at.isoformat(),
                    },
                )

        return None

    def _current_power_point(
        self,
        points: list[PowerForecastPoint],
        issued_at: datetime,
    ) -> PowerForecastPoint | None:
        if not points:
            return None

        first = points[0]
        return PowerForecastPoint(
            target_at=issued_at,
            horizon_minutes=0,
            expected_power_w=first.p50_power_w,
            p10_power_w=first.p10_power_w,
            p50_power_w=first.p50_power_w,
            p90_power_w=first.p90_power_w,
            confidence=first.confidence,
            source=first.source,
            model_version=first.model_version,
            metadata={
                "interpolated": True,
                "anchored_to": first.target_at.isoformat(),
            },
        )

    def _ceil_time(self, value: datetime, step_minutes: int) -> datetime:
        step_seconds = step_minutes * 60
        timestamp = value.timestamp()
        remainder = timestamp % step_seconds
        if remainder:
            timestamp += step_seconds - remainder
        return datetime.fromtimestamp(timestamp, timezone.utc)

    def _time_ratio(
        self,
        left: datetime,
        right: datetime,
        value: datetime,
    ) -> float:
        span = (right - left).total_seconds()
        if span <= 0:
            return 0.0
        return (value - left).total_seconds() / span

    def _lerp(self, left: float, right: float, ratio: float) -> float:
        return left + (right - left) * ratio

    def _timedelta_hours(self, hours: int):
        from datetime import timedelta

        return timedelta(hours=hours)

    def _timedelta_minutes(self, minutes: int):
        from datetime import timedelta

        return timedelta(minutes=minutes)


EnergyForecastBuilder = EnergyOracleBuilder